Sunday, May 3, 2009

A New Cold War?

Since the Russia-Georgia war of last year, alarm over Russia’s use of military force has spread through Europe and the US. In particular, the US and Russia have been drifting steadily apart. Russia has defensively responded to US attempts to expand NATO, including US backed efforts to grant membership to Ukraine and Georgia. This would bring the western security apparatus deep within former Soviet territory, a belt of states that Russia perceives as a strategic buffer.

Tension between Europe, the US, and Russia is not only about military security, however. It is also about energy security. Georgia occupies a key geographic space through which oil and natural gas pipelines pass on their way from the Caspian Sea and on to Western markets. Russia’s post-Cold War economic recovery has been largely based on growing energy revenues, and it is attempting to maintain this economic strength by monopolize the sale of energy resources from the greater Caspian Sea region (the Caucasus and Central Asia). The pipelines passing through Georgia, then, undercut Russia in this regard.

Georgia has also been a recent darling of the West, as the result of democracy’s triumph in the “Rose Revolution.” Russia has viewed the spread of democracy in its former Soviet republics with suspicion, as the subsequent elections have led to pro-Western, anti-Russian leaders gaining power. So, when the Russia-Georgia war began (under murky circumstances) it was easy to perceive the conflict through a paradigm of East versus West, free world versus centralized power, and David versus Goliath. It didn’t take long before the media in the US began talking about the possibility of a “New Cold War” emerging between the US and Russia. Some in the media and the academy, however, have gone even further. They have claimed that we are seeing not a “New Cold War” but essentially a “Cold War II.” The idea is that the old conflict between Russia and the US was merely been “frozen” or buried temporarily until Russia could restructure its economy and re-emerge as a more powerful challenger to US hegemony.

Both the idea of a New Cold War and a Cold War II are understandable given the American experience with Russia, but they provide a skewed paradigm from which to view the Russia-Georgia war or Russia-US tensions. The greatest and most memorable conflict the US has ever had with Russia was the Cold War. This conflict left an indelible mark on the American consciousness, and now when Russia appears to be the enemy, there is really only one conflict with which Americans associate Russia. Europeans have had a longer experience with Russia throughout history and are more likely to realize that East versus West tensions long preceded the Cold War. They also are more likely to understand Russia’s desire for a security buffer, as it has been invaded various times across its long and open borders. Indeed, Germany and other European states have been the ones putting the brakes on US attempts to bring NATO to Russia’s doorstep.

To really understand why this talk of another Cold War is a misunderstanding, however, one really only has to look at the defining characteristics of the Cold War. That conflict divided the world in to two major power blocks: the communist world versus the “free world.” Why was the “free world” billed as free? This was partly due to the prevalence of democracy in the states forming the core of this block, but it was particularly due to the free market orientation of these states. The ideology that divided the world was primarily rooted in opposing economic visions. The Cold War was about free markets and individual rights versus command economies and community rights. Today, Russia has maintained its tendency to centralize power but has embraced capitalism. It is capitalism, even if not completely free, that has brought the Russian economy back from the dead. Russia is not advocating a new world economic system, and it is no longer attempting to export ideology around the world. Instead, it is pursuing its own specific economic and security interests in order to maximize its power as an independent actor on the international stage.

This sort of behavior is actually a return to pre-Cold War days. It is much closer to the practice of Realpolitik and the idea of power balancing. Instead of a new Cold War engulfing the globe, we may be seeing a pattern of conflict much more similar to the power games played out between Great Britain and the Tsarist Russian empire during the 19th Century. The competition between these two, which focused on the greater Caspian Sea region has been referred to as the “Great Game.” Today, a New Great Game would not only have similar international competition between global powers, however, it also must consider the strength of growing regional powers like Turkey and Iran. There is not a new single, worldwide conflict brewing behind the Russia-Georgia war, but a complex new set of conflicts involving various different actors and differing interests.

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